Don Chavez

I don’t know what was worse. Seeing Big Brown come out of the gate rank, and knowing before the first turn that he didn’t have a chance of winning the Triple Crown, or listening to the chick across the bar scream “come on” while practically in tears even though there was still 5/8 of a mile left? I hate shit like that. These are the same people who think the race is over when the horses cross the finish line for the first time at the Derby.

It was no surprise that there wasn’t an ounce of sympathy for sale to Big Brown trainer Rick Dutrow.

ESPN - Someone asked trainer David Carroll, whose Denis of Cork finished second, whether he felt bad about helping spoil a Triple Crown.

“No, I don’t,” Carroll said. “Not one little bit. There’s a right way and a wrong way. You win with class and you lose with class.

“Basically what [Dutrow] has been saying is, [Denis of Cork] is a P.O.S. And he isn’t. He rubbed me the wrong way.”

On the positive side of things, Busted Coverage found this video of a guy who obviously didn’t read my article on why you shouldn’t have bet Big Brown to win.

Cuzoogle also came through with some ridiculous photos of Shaq dressed as a jockey promoting Vitamin Water. I have an uneasy feeling that long after Shaq retires he will be pestering the world with shitty commercials.

Today’s Belmont Stakes looks to be a rather uneventful one, as Casino Drive has officially been scratched. The only thing that can get in Big Brown’s way is ailing hoof, or one of the other contenders deciding to be the enforcer and taking Big Brown out against the rail in some sort of a crazed horse fight.

Now if you are looking for a Big Brown souvenir win ticket, the cost is $2. But if you’re looking to make money, stay away from the win pool. Today we might see the rare occasion where the place and show bet pay just as much (possibly more) as the win bet.

Why?

The reason is simple. The three pools are independent of each other, and every Mary, Suzanne, and Ethel that doesn’t know a thing about horse racing will put their money on the UPS horse to win. Factor in plenty of souvenir money, and you have neglected place and show pools, which will probably be comprised of people who bet Big Brown across the board (win, place and show).

Don Chavez, you sir are full of crap!

Hey, eat a donkey dick! If you do your homework and look at the 2004 Belmont you’ll see that Smarty Jones would have paid 35 cents on the dollar to win (he came in second), and you received 65 and 30 cents on the dollar for the place and show bets.

But I want to get rich today. How do I do it?

My first suggestion would be to start a prostitution ring. As long as you bribe the fuzz to keep them off your back, you’ll never go out of business. There’s great cash flow, and if you land your girls a few high end clients you could get a book deal some day down the road when you retire.

If you are looking to get rich today by playing the ponies, I suggest that you play the pick 4. Big Brown is the free bingo spot, so you’re essentially playing a pick 3. A long shot or two is bound to win in the undercard before the Belmont Stakes, and it would send your odds on Big Brown skyrocketing.

For the Kentucky Derby, you have three seating options. You can rape your bank account and sit in an actual seat on the grandstand side of the track, you can cram into the paddock area and watch the races on a big screen, or you can pack a cooler and venture into the infield area.

Should you decide to go with the infield party, I can guarantee you the following:

5 strides from the wire and you looked back to see who was coming? I mean isn’t this right up there with running out every ground ball, hitting until you hear the whistle, etc.?

Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro is now trying to fight off an infection.  As a result, his surgical team went in and replaced all of the screws and the compression plate, which are used to help the bone fuse together.  Barbaro also received a fresh bone graft during the procedure.

Barbaro injury has been healing, although he is still far away from a full recovery.  He has also requested more letters, fruit, and cards from his fans. 

I decided to play the Belmont Stakes card from home today.  I figured there was no need to deal with the “know-it-alls”, plus it’s been raining all day.  I was pretty happy when I realized that I could watch the races in HD on ESPN instead of the simulcast feed via TVG.

That was until I realized that it was a 7 1/2 hour Barbaro special.  In case you haven’t been caught up yet, Barbaro shattered his leg, they did surgery, he’s in a cast, and it will be months before we know if he is okay.  The country has reached out to him with cards, letters, and emails.  People love him.  His jockey, trainer, and owners are upset and want to save his life.  Okay, now take that and stretch it out into 15 minute segments throughout the entire afternoon.  It’s boring.

So to compound my frustation, I see Hammerin’ Hank Goldberg on the screen.  “I’ve picked to in a row. So here’s my exacta”… Two races later the pick 6 started, and I have four tickets going.  Two of them singled Tiger in the first leg.  What do I see as I flip from TVG to ESPN.  “Hank-Tiger”.  I knew those tickets were throwouts.  I can only hope that he doesn’t like the 3/5 odds on Gorella, and looks for a price in this four horse field.

Platinum Couple

Has yet to hit the board in a graded stakes race.  Tough position on the rail, and should get buried at the back of the pack.  The race needs to break down for him to score.

Sunriver

This Pletcher entry has improved in his last four starts.  Has won and placed in two starts over a fast Belmont Track.  Has shown the ability to rate and close on the front runners.  Tough to leave out of the exotic wagers.

Hemingway’s Key

Took show money in the Preakness.  Didn’t take to a sloppy Gulfstream track in the Holy Bull.  Could take third or fourth.

Bob and John

The wise guy play.  USA today is touting this horse and the public will jump on because of his Wood Memorial victory over a sloppy Aqueduct track.  Hank “the tank” Goldberg has eluded that this is his pick…I’ll stay away from him.

High Finance

Speed and faaaaaaaaaaade.  This horse steps up from allowance company and will be making his first start around two turns.  Looks like he could be a star in the future, but I think the 1 1/2 and the field will be too much for him.

Oh So Awesome

Team Valor purchased this horse specifically for this race based on his pedigree.  Will sit off the pace and look to close in the stretch.  His only dirt start was over a sloppy Belmont track, and was much more promising than it looks on paper.  The odds and the upside on this horse are too good to pass up.  I’ll have him across the board and in my exotics.

Deputy Glitters

Has not shown the ability to handle a sloppy track.  Has been beat by four of the contenders in this race.  Needs the field to backup to take some purse money.

Jazil

Will do what he does best, close.  Has an affinity for rounding out the superfecta.  Can handle the slop and could thrive on the added distance.  I’ll use him in the exotics, and wouldn’t argue with anyone who thinks he could win.

Bluegrass Cat

Rewind to January, and he was the favorite for the Kentucky Derby.  Many lost hope after a 21 1/4 length loss in the Bluegrass Stakes.  Rebounded in the Derby with an impressive second place finish.  I think he’ll be the leader into the stretch, the only question will be if he can fend off Jazil, Steppenwolfer, and Oh So Awesome. 

Double Galore

Stepping up from Maiden Special Weight.  They’ll probably run out of room for his odds on the tote board.  Throwout.

Steppenwolfer

Just like Jazil, he’ll be closing.  Has hit the board in 8 of 9 tries.  Albarado will need to gear him down at the start to settle him behind the pace.  Could best the field and I’ll use him in the exotics.  If the odds are right I’ll also take him across the board.

Sacred Light

I wouldn’t be shocked if he hit the board.  Has spent most of the year chasing Brother Derek who is now on vacation.  Also faced Bob and John and could not make up ground on him at 1 1/8.  If I’m going to play against Bob and John, then I’ll play against Sacred Light as well.

So on to the picks…

1. Oh So Awesome

2. Steppenwolfer

3. Sunriver

4. Jazil

These links should answer all of your questions, except for who the winner will be.

Belmont wagering menu

Belmont Track and Race info

Belmont Stats

Belmont Stakes Free Past Performances (equibase)

Belmont Field and Odds

Belmont Contender Profiles

Acorn Stakes Free Past Performances (equibase)

Manhattan Handicap Free Past Performances (equibase)

The bloodhorse quoted Trainer Todd Pletcher saying “There is very little incentive for anybody besides the (Kentucky) Derby (gr.1) winner to run back in the Preakness (gr. 1).  The Triple Crown has to take a hard look at whats going on here.”

I decided to pull out the old Racing Almanac and see what the previous Triple Crown bonus structure had been.  From 1987-1993, a $1M bonus was paid to the horse with the best overall performance in all three of the Triple Crown races.  The bonus winner was determined through a point system that gave 10 pts for 1st, 5 pts for 2nd, 3 pts for 3rd, and 1 pt for 4th.  This bonus was originally sponsored by Chrysler, until they withdrew their spnsoreship in 1993.

In 1998, Visa stepped up to the plate and sponsored a $5M bonus for a Triple Crown sweep, until last year when they did not renew their sponsorship contract.  Obviously, nobody was able to cash in on this bonus.

The sweep bonus would have been great for the connections if their horse had accomplished it, but it didn’t offer any incentive.  The accomplishment of winning the Triple Crown offers enough incentive on it’s own for the Kentucky Derby winner to continue on to the Preakness, and then to the Belmont if they can complete the sweep.

So why not bring back the point system, but with a $5M bonus?  This truely gives incentive to every Kentucky Derby entrant to move onto the next leg.  Without it, the connections look towards a Summer campaign for their horse, and the public looks for a baseball game to watch.